China, Iran, North Korea, and Russia. World War III without declaration? What does the map of the new axis of regimes hide?

The occasion was the publication of Post factum “World War 3”, explained, where the authors analyze whether the current chain of wars can already be called the “Third World War,” and show a map of connections between China, Iran, North Korea, and Russia. The main conclusion there is cautious: there is no formal world war, but there is a network of conflicts, treaties, and military cooperation that makes the situation resemble a new type of global confrontation.

This is not yet a world war — but no longer separate crises

Post factum directly answers: no, today’s wars cannot yet be called a real world war. According to their logic, this requires a formal war between most major powers, mobilization of the population in these countries, combat operations on several continents, and massive losses potentially in the millions.

But something else is more important.

The authors show that the wars in Ukraine, the Middle East, around Iran, in Gaza, and in other regions no longer exist as completely separate crises. They are connected by a common geopolitical logic: the old world order dominated by the US is weakening, and countries interested in dismantling this order are increasingly helping each other.

For Israel, this is not an abstract theory. Iran is a direct enemy of Israel and one of the key centers of threat to the region. Russia is waging an aggressive war against Ukraine while maintaining close ties with Tehran. North Korea sends resources and people to support the Russian war. China acts more cautiously but remains a strategic center of power interested in weakening American influence.

That is why the Post factum map looks not like an educational scheme, but like a warning.

Four countries without a common treaty, but with a common logic

The article emphasizes: there is no single formal alliance between China, Iran, North Korea, and Russia. There is no document that would turn these four regimes into one military bloc.

But there are bilateral connections.

Russia and North Korea are presented as a full-fledged military alliance. Post factum notes that North Korea sent about 12,000 soldiers to fight on Russia’s side against Ukraine.

Russia and Iran represent a different model: military cooperation without a full-fledged mutual defense pact. The article mentions Iran’s transfer of Shahed drone technology, which Russia uses against Ukraine, as well as Russian technical and intelligence support for Iran against the US.

China and North Korea are linked by a long-standing mutual defense treaty and military cooperation. China and Iran, according to Post factum, have a broad economic partnership but without a formal military component.

A separate detail is the annual naval exercises of China, Iran, and Russia in Iranian waters. This is not just symbolism. For Israel, Ukraine, and Western allies, such formats show that anti-Western coordination is gradually moving from diplomacy to military practice.

Why this is important specifically for Israel

Israel is accustomed to viewing threats through a Middle Eastern lens: Iran, Hamas, Hezbollah, the Houthis, Syria, Lebanon, Tehran’s nuclear program.

But the Post factum map shows a broader outline. Iran is not alone. Behind it are connections with Russia, China, and North Korea — not always direct, not always public, but stable enough to influence war, sanctions, weapons, technology, drones, missiles, and diplomatic protection on international platforms.

Here, Ukraine and Israel find themselves in the same strategic picture.

Ukraine already sees Iranian Shaheds, the North Korean factor, and the Russian military machine on its territory. Israel faces the Iranian system of influence in the Middle East — from proxy groups to missile threats. And China observes all this as a global player that is in no hurry to take on an open military role but benefits from the weakening of the American order.

NAnews — News of Israel | Nikk.Agency views this map not as a “scare story” about World War III, but as an important tool for understanding: the current danger is not in one big declaration of war, but in the gradual stitching together of different fronts into one system of pressure on the West, Israel, and Ukraine.

The main conclusion: a world war may look different

A classic world war is fronts, alliances, mobilization, declarations, armies of great powers against each other.

But the 21st century may offer a different form of global conflict. Not necessarily with one day of beginning. Not necessarily with an official declaration. Not necessarily with a unified command stake.

It can be a network of wars, proxy conflicts, drone attacks, economic strikes, information campaigns, nuclear blackmail, sanction circumventions, naval exercises, and diplomatic blocking of decisions.

That is why the Post factum article is important. It does not claim that “World War III has already begun” in the classical sense. It shows that the world is increasingly entering a state where separate wars become parts of one big struggle for a new order.

For Israel, this means a simple thing: the war with the Iranian threat cannot be considered separately from Russia, China, and North Korea. For Ukraine, it means that Russian aggression has long ceased to be only a Russian-Ukrainian war. And for the West, it means that the time of convenient illusions about “local crises” is ending.

The Post factum map does not provide a ready forecast. But it clearly shows the direction of movement: there may not be a formal bloc, but the strategic axis is already working.

What should Israel do

In such a situation, Israel cannot view Iran as a separate regional problem. Tehran has long been acting not alone: behind it are military, technological, diplomatic, and economic ties with Russia, China, and North Korea. This is not always a direct military alliance, but for Israel’s security, not only the text of the treaty is important, but the real ability of enemies to help each other with weapons, intelligence, technology, drones, missiles, and political cover.

First — Israel needs to more firmly link the Iranian threat with the Russian factor. If Iran helps Russia kill Ukrainians with Shahed drones, and Russia in return strengthens Tehran with technology, intelligence, or diplomatic support, this is no longer a “distant war in Ukraine.” This is a chain that can return to Israel through Lebanon, Syria, Yemen, Iraq, Gaza, and the Red Sea.

Second — Israel needs to strengthen coordination with the US, Europe, and Ukraine specifically on practical directions: air defense, drone combat, cyber protection, sanctions, control of component supplies, tracking routes of weapons and technologies. Ukraine today is a huge laboratory of modern warfare against Russian-Iranian means of destruction. Ignoring this experience for Israel would be a strategic mistake.

Third — Israel needs a more honest public assessment of Russia. While Moscow cooperates with Iran, hosts Hamas, gets closer to North Korea, and wages war against Ukraine, it is becoming increasingly difficult to speak of it as a “neutral mediator.” For Israeli society, this is a painful issue because many have personal, family, and cultural ties with the post-Soviet space. But security requires looking not at past connections, but at current actions.

Fourth — Israel should more actively explain to the world that the Iranian threat is not limited to the Middle East. It is part of a broader anti-Western pressure system. The Houthis strike at sea routes, Hezbollah threatens northern Israel, Hamas has become an instrument of destructive war, and Iranian drones have already become weapons against Ukrainian cities. This is not about different crises, but about interconnected elements of one strategy.

Fifth — Israel needs to maintain its own freedom of action, but not confuse caution with silence. A small country in a complex region cannot afford the luxury of ideological gestures without calculation. But the constant attempt to “not irritate” those who help Israel’s enemies also has a price.

The main conclusion is simple: Israel needs to prepare not for one war on one front, but for an era of interconnected threats. The Iranian axis no longer ends in Tehran. It stretches through Moscow, Beijing, Pyongyang, proxy groups, sea routes, drone technologies, and international organizations.

Therefore, Israel’s strategy should be broader: fewer illusions, more allies, more technological exchange with Ukraine and the West, more pressure on Iran and its partners — and a much clearer understanding that the war against Israel today can start far beyond the Middle East.

Post factum — an independent British educational media on geopolitics, based in London. The project was launched by Anton Kutuzov in 2023 after working at The Telegraph. He positions Post factum as a platform with short visual explanations of international processes, funded by reader subscriptions, donations, and initial angel funding.