The technical report states that NATO countries are facing a serious staffing shortage problem.

Against the backdrop of the escalating conflict between Russia and Ukraine, and notably, in light of subsequent violations of Russian airspace over other European countries, NATO countries are preparing for potential intervention in the conflict. The National Interest magazine presented an investigation revealing a serious problem: a personnel shortage in allied nations.

According to the report, almost all NATO member states face difficulties in recruiting personnel and maintaining the necessary troop levels to deter and effectively act against Russia. The demographic crisis in Europe, along with the growing gap between the military and civilians, exacerbates this task. Even with new commitments to allocate 5% of GDP for security needs, alliance countries may face recruitment challenges.

Demographic Challenges

The demographic crisis in Europe poses an immediate threat to military conscription. In 2022, the number of newborns in the European Union fell below four million for the first time since 1960. Decades of peace after the Cold War have led to military service losing priority among the youth.

The investigation in The National Interest suggests looking at the situation in three NATO countries as an example illustrating the scale of the problem.

Germany

It is claimed that Berlin’s defensive ambitions are largely limited by cultural resistance to military service. Despite positive steps in planning and budgeting, not enough Germans are willing to serve in the military to strengthen the armed forces. The German government has set a goal to increase the number of military personnel by 30,000 over six years to create the “most powerful army” in Europe. However, according to the investigation, these numbers are insufficient for effective national defense.

Berlin is experiencing the consequences of tension: it is the second-largest arms supplier to Ukraine but hesitates to send troops on peacekeeping missions due to existing personnel limitations.

Norway

In 2024, Oslo announced an ambitious ten-year program to enhance security, involving the allocation of $60 billion to increase defense spending and procure weapons. To finance the changes, Norway is taking measures to increase its military contingent by 50% by 2036. Despite an impressive system of mandatory military service, Oslo often faces difficulties in converting conscripts into professional soldiers.

It should be noted that the maximum term of mandatory service in Norway is only 19 months, leading to high turnover and hindering the accumulation of experience and continuity. These trends become especially noticeable given Norway’s relatively small population—only 5.6 million. Problems with recruiting a sufficient contingent today may indicate the impossibility of increasing the army’s size in the future.

Italy

According to the investigation, like Berlin and Oslo, Rome faces serious personnel challenges and is likely to encounter difficulties in recruiting troops in the future. Last year, the Italian Chief of Defense Staff noted that Italy’s armed forces, numbering 165,000, are “not simple” and fewer than 170,000 is considered “below survival level.”

Unlike Germany and Norway, Italy has a simpler solution to the problem: raising salaries. Currently, the average salary of military personnel is not comparable to incomes in the private and public sectors. Low salaries, combined with Italy’s relative distance from Russian aggression, undermine public support—in fact, only 16% of Italians express readiness to fight for their country.

Lessons from the USA

The problems faced by these countries are not unique to Europe. According to the report, the United States is also subject to demographic pressures, albeit for different reasons, and has also had to adapt its recruitment methods to maintain the necessary personnel levels. The investigation suggests that NATO countries learn from US practices to redesign their military capabilities based on increased defense spending.

According to the study, the US military managed to exceed recruitment goals for 2024 thanks to focused leadership efforts, innovative initiatives such as service preparation courses, and pragmatic policy changes, including easing tattoo restrictions and allowing retests for THC.