- January 23, 2026
- 1:17 pm
- World News
On January 17, US President Donald Trump moved from hints to direct statements. In an interview with Politico, he openly expressed dissatisfaction with the rule of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, stating that his 37-year era should come to an end. According to Trump, this is not about diplomatic rhetoric, but about a regime that “kills its own people and destroys the country.”
For the region, this became a signal. Not just another statement from Washington, but a marker of a change in tone — harsh, personal, without the usual reservations.
Arab political observers agree on one thing: in a direct military or political confrontation with the Trump administration, the current Iranian regime is unlikely to withstand a long distance. Tension within the country is temporarily muted by forceful methods, but this calm appears tactical rather than stable.
Why Tehran no longer feels support
Analysts point to a chain of events that changed Tehran’s calculations. The fall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime in Syria and the American operation in Venezuela, which ended with the arrest of Nicolas Maduro, became a clear example: external support does not guarantee survival.
Russia and China, which Iran traditionally looked to as strategic partners, are increasingly demonstrating pragmatism. Their involvement in the Iranian agenda is perceived as calculated and limited — without a willingness to bear real risks. Support exists, but it is symbolic and reversible.
Pressure changing the rules of the game
In Jerusalem, they note: Trump’s line has changed the global context. Control over energy and mineral flows in Venezuela has become an example of how Washington combines military, economic, and political power.
Russia, which previously actively defended Assad, ultimately chose its own priorities. This experience is being carefully studied in Tehran — and unpleasant conclusions are being drawn.
Military signals and limits of deterrence
Iranian officials increasingly admit: pressure on the regime is growing. One of the markers was the 12-day “Rising Lion” war with Israel in June, which showed the vulnerability of Iran’s defense system.
The country has lost a significant part of its defensive capabilities. In fact, the main deterrent remains the ballistic arsenal — about 2000 missiles. This is a serious resource, but it is no longer sufficient for confident opposition to the US and Israel.
Economy, protests, and cracks within the elite
Against the backdrop of a deteriorating economy, internal unrest is becoming an increasingly dangerous factor. Strikes on nuclear infrastructure carried out during operations by Israel and the US have undermined trust in the leadership. Questions are being raised not only on the streets but also in offices.
According to security sources, there is a reassessment of risks within the Iranian political elite. Including among those who were previously considered cautious reformers, not the opposition.
Secret channels and public pauses
The attempt to establish a closed communication channel with Washington to discuss a new nuclear deal became another sign of weakness. When Trump publicly revealed the existence of these contacts and froze negotiations, he made it clear: concessions are possible only with a change in the regime’s behavior, including the cessation of harsh suppression of protests.
Two scenarios of destabilization
Experts highlight two likely paths for the crisis to develop. The first is a combination of constant US pressure and mass protests that security forces will not be able to control indefinitely.
The second is an internal split, where the military leadership considers Khamenei a threat to the preservation of the system itself and moves to change the leader for stabilization.
The outcome is not yet determined. But the very fact that the question of the regime’s fall is being discussed openly and seriously already changes the balance. The old order is cracking, and the new one has not yet formed. It is at this point of uncertainty that Iran finds itself today, and the development of the situation is being closely watched in Jerusalem, Washington, and far beyond.
NANews — News of Israel | Nikk.Agency
