For the first time since the founding of Israel, population growth has fallen below 1%.

The population growth rate in Israel has dropped to a level the country has not seen since its early years. According to an analysis published this week by the Taub Center for Social Policy Studies in Israel, the population growth this year was only 0.9% — for the first time since 1950, the figure fell below the psychological mark of one percent.

The authors of the study note several factors that have aligned: increased mortality, continued decline in birth rates, and negative migration balance. According to the report’s editor, Professor Alex Weinreb, Israel has already passed the point of maximum natural population growth. Meanwhile, the question of future immigration remains open and poorly predictable.

Over the past decade, the number of births has generally appeared relatively stable — about 180,000 newborns per year. But behind this apparent stability are sharp shifts within individual population groups.

The most noticeable decline in birth rates has been recorded among Muslim, Druze, and Christian women: according to the analysis, in recent years, the rate has decreased by approximately 30%. This is a significant turnaround for communities long considered a demographic “anchor” of growth.

Early signs of declining birth rates are also appearing among Jewish women. Forecasts indicate that over the next decade, the average number of children in secular and traditional Jewish families may decrease from 1.9–2.2 to about 1.7. Among religious Jewish women, a decline from 3.74 to approximately 2.3 is expected, and among ultra-Orthodox women — from 6.48 to about 4.3. Even considering that these figures remain high by international standards, the trend itself changes the long-term picture.

At the same time, the number of deaths is increasing. The reason lies in the age structure of the population: significant cohorts of both Jewish and Arab populations are entering old age. This is a demographically predictable process, but its effect is now becoming statistically noticeable and directly impacts the overall balance.

Migration remains a separate factor. In recent years, the number of people leaving Israel has exceeded the number of returnees and new immigrants. In 2025, the difference between these flows was about 37,000 people. Data for the first nine months of the year also indicate that the level of immigration may be the lowest since 2013. Meanwhile, most of those who left are not native-born.

The picture, however, is more complex than the simple formula “left — did not return.” Not every emigration is final. Temporary mobility, especially among people with high levels of education and in academia, can contribute to skill accumulation, development of international connections, and subsequent return with new experience.

Nevertheless, the absolute numbers are concerning. If in 2022 less than 20,000 native Israelis left the country, in 2025 their number exceeded 30,000. Even maintaining the share in the overall flow, growth in absolute terms becomes a factor that cannot be ignored.

Whether the increase in outflow will lead to a rise in returning aliyah remains an open question. Israel’s demographic future increasingly depends on a combination of internal processes and external conditions: security, economy, trust in institutions, and a sense of perspective. That is why such reports go beyond dry statistics and become part of the public conversation, which today is led by NAnews — News of Israel | Nikk.Agency.