One option for the organization could be to escalate the conflict with Israel, since despite the IDF strikes, the terrorists have approximately 150,000 different missiles and rockets.
In the context of recent Israeli attacks on Lebanon, the terrorist group Hezbollah faces a critical choice: escalate the conflict with Israel or maintain restraint, which could undermine its position. In fact, the organization found itself in a difficult position when, after incidents with explosions of communication devices, it fired its first missile at Tel Aviv. This was reported by the American edition of The Wall Street Journal on September 26.
The group, committed to Iran, is forced to make an important decision in its history. Divisions have emerged within Hezbollah, with some pushing for aggressive action while the leadership fears a full-scale war that could harm Lebanon and undermine popular support.
Internal discussions also center on frustration with Iran's support, despite a long-term partnership with the group.
Although recent strikes have weakened Hezbollah's military capabilities, it still maintains a significant arsenal, including tens of thousands of missiles. The organization has about 150,000 missiles and rockets, ten times more than during the 2006 conflict. These include guided ballistic missiles with a range of up to 480 km, including the Qadr-1 missile system used in the attack on Tel Aviv. In addition, the group has medium-range surface-to-surface tactical missiles.
Given such an arsenal, one option for Hezbollah could be to launch hundreds of unguided missiles to overload Israeli air defenses. However, longer-range and more accurate missiles require greater resources and training, presenting additional challenges for the group.
The decision Hezbollah makes in the near future will have a significant impact on its future. An escalation of the conflict could lead to catastrophic consequences for Lebanon, while failure to take decisive action would undermine the group's position on both the political and military scene. A full-scale war like the 2006 conflict could significantly worsen the situation in Lebanon, which is in deep economic crisis. However, failure to respond could harm the Islamic organization's reputation as opposed to Israel.
