The deal between Pakistan and Saudi Arabia may threaten US interests in the region.

In September 2025, Pakistan and Saudi Arabia signed a strategic defense agreement, which effectively means the creation of a military alliance. Political analyst Igor Tyshkevich notes that any attack on one of the countries will be considered aggression against both.

The agreement provides for the possibility of including third parties, which could transform it into a multilateral military bloc. It is particularly noteworthy that Pakistan is a nuclear power, and the term “strategic defense” in its official documents includes both missiles and nuclear forces. The implementation of the agreement will require the establishment of appropriate infrastructure and will occupy an important place on the major political stage.

Circumstances and Reasons

The creation of such an agreement requires lengthy consultations and development. For example, over the past three decades, Arab monarchies have operated under the US security “umbrella,” which facilitated their role as intermediaries in trade and technology, going beyond simple oil exports.

Since the change in the US foreign policy line began in 2024, with all subsequent upheavals and changes in rhetoric, situations have intensified. One such situation was the acceleration of military conflicts, such as the escalation between Pakistan and India, culminating in the spring Indo-Pakistani war. Additionally, acting in the region, Israel exacerbated security issues.

Given the above, the security of the countries in the region has come to the forefront. The American concept of creating a “cooperation belt” involving Israel faced realities that increased existing risks for mutual relations.

• Further strengthening of such a “belt” became impractical and fraught with new difficulties for internal political stability.
• The US interest effectively narrowed down to oil issues, increasing financial costs for security in other regions.

US initiatives for economic confrontation with China interfered with the security balance, only increasing tension in the economy. As a result, a new agreement between Saudi Arabia and Pakistan was formed, and the results of months of negotiations became apparent with a reminder of recent events in the region.

The first week after the closure of the Organization of Islamic Cooperation summit in Doha, which called for unity in case of an attack on Qatar, was not accidental. The signing of the SMDA is presented as a timely response to the latest threats. It is also important that the creation of a new military alliance may attract the attention of other countries in the region.

American Reaction

It is currently difficult to assess the full consequences of the SMDA from Washington’s perspective. On the one hand, the document is allowed as a positive step. It is seen as an attempt to contain Iran and support relations with India. The initial reaction of the White House may have been influenced by an internal view of the situation.

However, the joining of third countries to this agreement will result in the loss of US control over security in this part of the world. With the threat of forming a new military bloc, there will be a need to revise foreign policy strategies in the context of modern geopolitical professionalism.

Moreover, it should be noted that the signing of the agreement occurred even before important negotiations between the US and China in Beijing, which affects the White House’s positions against the backdrop of analogies with other strategic regions.

Long-term Consequences

For China, considering the possibility of creating joint military blocs, the Pakistan-Saudi agreement may be of interest from the perspective of long-term analysis and assessment of political influence. If the SMDA proves successful, Beijing may deepen its own strategies and gain more influence, strengthening the induced balance.

Thus, the current position of the SMDA serves as an indicator of mutations in the old world system. The signed document is currently only bilateral, but it can become an important element in the conditions of intense political bargaining on the world stage.

The conclusion of this agreement shows the growing influence of nuclear powers on interaction in the military-political sphere and raises questions about effective policy in this dynamic era of change.