The Economist assessed whether Europe is capable of protecting its sky from Russia

On September 13, 2025, an attack was recorded in Romania, raising the question of how effectively NATO can protect its airspace from Kremlin threats. An analysis of Europe’s air defense capabilities and actions to strengthen it was conducted by journalists from The Economist.

Assessment of NATO’s Air Defense Capabilities

NATO’s air shield is built on several levels. The first stage involves reconnaissance and surveillance. The alliance has 14 early warning aircraft that patrol the space from Germany to the borders of Ukraine and Belarus. They are supported by reconnaissance drones based in Italy, as well as American radar balloons ordered by Poland.

In addition, the alliance is experimenting with acoustic sensors capable of detecting drones. The next level consists of allied fighters. They actively patrol NATO’s eastern borders: Italians and Spaniards control the Baltics, while the Dutch and Norwegians cover Poland. If necessary, the aircraft can not only escort Russian planes but also shoot down missiles or drones. For instance, after recent attacks, France sent three Rafale fighters to the Tuscan region.

The third component is ground-based air defense. In Eastern Europe, both local systems and Patriot complexes provided by Germany, the USA, and other allies are operational. Additional coverage is provided by American destroyers in the waters with long-range radars. This entire network is integrated into the IAMD system, managed by the headquarters in Ramstein (Germany).

On paper, the described spectrum of protection looks confident, but serious problems arise in practice.

Problems Arising in NATO’s Air Defense System

According to the publication, over time, a significant number of air defense systems were transferred to Ukraine, resulting in European countries not having the necessary reserves. As noted by Rutte, NATO must increase air defense funding fourfold to effectively meet military plans. Moreover, small drones initiating attacks often pass through radars unnoticed.

From time to time, debris falls on Romanian territory, missiles hit Poland, and one of the drones was recorded falling in Latvia. Polish authorities acknowledged that some devices are ignored due to suspicions that they might be “empty decoys.”

From a financial standpoint, intercepting “Gerbers” — cheap foam drones — with Patriot missiles turns out to be excessively costly. Although NATO countries are working on laser systems and close-combat guns, these innovations are not yet widespread on a mass basis.

Simultaneously, there are political complexities. Europe still heavily depends on American resources and military practices, and under Trump’s administration, the US may reduce its interest in supporting the continent’s defense. Some NATO states express concern about possible escalation, cautiously minimizing the significance of attacks. Poland, having shot down the latest Russian salvo and leaving no questions in its statement about a deliberate attack, takes a step away from prudent policy.

Unlike Israel, NATO does not have the right to shoot down drones over Ukrainian or Belarusian territories without the consent of all 32 member countries, which may encounter a blockade from some states. Thus, the alliance finds itself in a difficult position: the threat is growing, but responses remain limited.

Ideas for Closing the Sky Over Ukraine

• Polish Foreign Minister Radosław Sikorski proposed that NATO allies consider creating a no-fly zone over Ukraine, calling for joint interception of Russian air targets in Ukrainian airspace.
• In the West, the “Sky Shield” initiative also emerged, aimed at protecting the sky over Ukraine. According to Le Monde, 120 allied aircraft will be needed at the initial stage to accomplish this task.
• The expansion of the topic has become a source of threats from Russia. Deputy Chairman of the Security Council Dmitry Medvedev stated that creating a no-fly zone over Ukraine and allowing the alliance to intercept Russian drones could be considered as signing a war treaty with Russia.