- February 1, 2026
- 11:48 am
- World News
Washington — if there are no sharp political turns at the last moment, Thursday will mark the expiration of New START — the world’s last treaty limiting the deployment of strategic nuclear weapons. With its expiration, all formal limits for the two largest nuclear powers — the US and Russia — disappear.
In fact, this means the end of the era of treaty-based control over nuclear arsenals. New START remained the last active agreement between Washington and Moscow, restraining the arms race at least on paper.
The expiration of the treaty occurs against the backdrop of US President Donald Trump’s policy, who consistently distances himself from international agreements, considering them restrictive of America’s freedom of action. In the case of New START, however, sources in diplomatic circles do not rule out that it is not only about ideology but also about managerial inertia and the lack of a clear decision.
In the fall, Vladimir Putin publicly proposed extending the treaty for another year. The idea was voiced in September and was presented as a gesture of “goodwill” against the backdrop of already destroyed dialogue channels.
Answering journalists’ questions, Putin, while on board a helicopter, stated that “extension sounds like a good idea.” However, the process did not advance beyond these words.
Former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev, who signed New START in 2010 with Barack Obama, confirmed in an interview that Moscow never received a “substantive response” from Washington. At the same time, according to him, Russia is ready to “wait.”
The White House comments on the situation very cautiously. One of the administration officials, speaking on condition of anonymity, stated that Trump is generally interested in limiting nuclear weapons but wants to change the format — primarily by involving China.
According to him, the president “will clarify his position in due time,” without specifying whether it is a matter of weeks or months.
Arms control experts assess the situation much more harshly. Daryl Kimball, executive director of the Arms Control Association, believes that the second Trump administration has effectively lost the institutional ability to conduct complex negotiations after the departure of experienced diplomats and specialists.
In his opinion, Trump intuitively understands the danger of an uncontrolled arms race but has not formed a consistent strategy that could replace the existing security architecture.
At the same time, as analysts note, an agreement could have been reached with literally one phone call between Trump and Putin. “This is a window of opportunity that the administration should have used several months ago,” says John Wolfsthal, director of global security at the Federation of American Scientists.
He points out that the symbolic advancement of the “Doomsday Clock” in recent years is directly related to the risk of New START’s expiration and the destruction of the deterrence system.
The context becomes even more alarming against the backdrop of Trump’s own statements. In October, he publicly allowed the possibility of resuming nuclear tests — a practice that the US and Russia have refrained from for more than thirty years. However, specific plans were not announced.
Russia, in turn, suspended a key element of the treaty — the mechanism of mutual inspections — back in 2023. The reason was the sharp deterioration of relations with Joe Biden’s administration and the war against Ukraine, which finally destroyed the remnants of trust.
Military analyst Alexander Khramchikhin believes that both sides have long been thinking outside the framework of treaty limitations. According to him, “the treaty is effectively dead,” and its preservation was a formality. Vasily Kashin, director of the Center for Comprehensive European and International Studies, notes that Moscow will closely monitor US actions and respond symmetrically in case of an increase in the American nuclear potential.
New START limited each side to 1,550 deployed strategic warheads — almost a third less than the previous limit of 2002. The treaty also set a ceiling of 800 launchers and heavy bombers.
Even within these frameworks, the arsenals are sufficient for the multiple destruction of civilization, making the disappearance of any restrictions an especially dangerous signal.
During his first presidential term, Trump insisted on including China in a new agreement that was supposed to replace New START. The American delegation even demonstratively displayed an empty chair with a Chinese flag at the negotiations — a gesture perceived in Beijing as political theater.
After his inauguration in 2021, Joe Biden promptly agreed to extend the treaty for five years — until 2026. Despite criticism of the agreement’s terms, Trump continued informal dialogue with Moscow, invited Putin to a summit in Alaska, and tried to link nuclear issues with negotiations on Ukraine.
Today, this dialogue is practically nullified. NAnews — Israel News | Nikk.Agency notes that the world is entering a new phase of global security, where nuclear deterrence once again becomes a matter of political will rather than legal obligations.
The disappearance of New START does not mean an immediate increase in arsenals. But it removes the last formal stop signal — and this makes the new reality much more unpredictable than anything the world has been accustomed to in recent decades.
