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- August 8, 2024
- 4:26 pm
- Middle East
One of President Joe Biden’s top geopolitical priorities is to reduce U.S. influence in the Middle East to focus on China. But that’s proving more difficult than expected. The looming prospect of a major regional war suggests that one reason for the worsening situation in the Middle East is the global standoff between the U.S. and China.
The US pivot to East Asia has changed Iran's strategic thinking, and Beijing's response to the escalating US-China standoff has increased its support for Tehran. These developments have made the Middle East less stable and more prone to conflict, according to Professor Minxin Pei.
“There has been a clear and consistent message from Washington that China is a top strategic priority for America, which has likely reassured Iranian leaders that the United States does not seek direct military conflict with them. A war with Iran could divert U.S. attention and resources from China,” the professor notes.
Iran's new aggressiveness became clear after the Hamas attack on Israel on October 7. Hezbollah in Lebanon and the Houthis in Yemen would probably not play an active role without Tehran's support.
China's economic and diplomatic support has strengthened the Iranian regime. Beijing and Tehran have signed a $400 billion, 25-year deal. China has become the largest buyer of Iranian oil, and military cooperation between China and Iran has intensified.
Today's China is a marginal beneficiary of the upheavals in the Middle East. Washington's commitment to Israel has forced it to devote considerable attention and resources to the region.
“The longer the crisis keeps the US in check, the better for China. China is best served by constant tensions that do not lead to a regional war. An escalation that disrupts oil supplies and exports is less attractive,” Pei said.
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🌍 This article is also available in UK