Russia is facing a serious demographic crisis, which negatively affects the population.

The Foreign Intelligence Service of Ukraine has presented information about the complex demographic situation in Russia. The agency notes that the current conditions are worse than during the crisis period of the late 1990s to early 2000s.

Demographic Crisis

Analysis shows that previously migration partially compensated for the decline in birth rates and high mortality. However, today Russia has lost its appeal as a destination for labor migrants, and this reserve is practically exhausted.

Over three decades since the collapse of the USSR, migration growth allowed for covering more than 70% of the natural population decline. Now this mechanism does not work, exacerbating the demographic dynamics.

Minimal Birth Rates

According to forecasts, in 2024, only 1.22 million children are expected to be born in Russia, comparable to the crisis of 1999. Forecasts indicate a continued decline in birth rates by 3–5% annually. To stabilize the situation, the birth rate needs to be increased from 1.4 to 1.7 or 1.8, but in conditions of war and economic stagnation, this seems impossible.

Factors Exacerbating the Crisis

Problems with birth rates are aggravated by military losses and a massive emigration flow. An additional factor is the aging population: currently, 18% of Russian citizens are over 65 years old, and this figure continues to increase. This creates a serious burden on the pension system and healthcare, as well as reduces the number of young workers, which becomes a threat to the economy.

Rejection of Reforms

Instead of developing a system of family support, healthcare, and social programs, the Russian authorities focus on ideological steps, including the ban on the LGBT movement and restrictions on abortions. Experts believe that such measures cannot influence birth rates and only increase social tension.

Population Prospects

Experts warn that without attracting migrants, by the end of the century, the population of our country could decrease to 90 million people, and in a grim scenario — even to 57 million.

“Russia is ending the demographic cycle of the Putin era in worse conditions than 25 years ago. Future generations of leaders will inherit a protracted demographic crisis with negative consequences for the economy and social sphere,” the Ukrainian intelligence report emphasizes.