After Ukraine: warning of a new cycle of threats for Europe

Former State Duma deputy Gennady Gudkov stated that in the coming years, Russia might transition to new aggressive actions beyond Ukraine. According to his assessment, the risk for Europe is directly linked to how Moscow will restore resources after the current phase of the war.

Gudkov believes that approximately two to two and a half years after the end of active hostilities in Ukraine, Russia will begin to accumulate forces and rebuild its military machine. During this period, he says, Vladimir Putin might attempt to implement the next stage of pressure on neighboring states.

Among the first potential targets, he names Moldova, Armenia, Georgia, and Kazakhstan. After this, by inertial logic, NATO countries might also be at risk.

Gudkov voiced these assessments on the YouTube channel And Graham Struck. The format of the conversation was analytical, without sharp slogans, but with tough conclusions about the Kremlin’s strategic intentions.

He pays special attention to vulnerable regions. In his opinion, the Baltic countries are in a high-risk zone due to their geography and political symbolism for Moscow. Finland, which joined NATO, might also become a target of pressure — here, according to Gudkov, not only military calculation plays a role but also the personal perception factor from the Russian leadership.

Poland, he says, appears more protected, but this does not exclude hybrid scenarios. In the zone of potential non-standard type attacks, he mentions Romania, Czech Republic, Bulgaria, and Cyprus.

At the same time, Gudkov emphasizes: his forecast is not fatal. It is based on current trends and can be adjusted by sharp external events. As an example, he mentions a possible escalation between Iran and Israel, which could radically change the global balance of power and redistribute the attention of key players.

If the world develops according to an inertial scenario, he warns, then a few years after new crises in the Caucasus, Eastern Europe, and Central Asia, Russia might move to direct pressure on European interests, expanding the geography of the conflict.

Previously, Gennady Gudkov had already spoken about the Kremlin’s motivation and claimed that Putin has a vulnerable spot that could theoretically become a factor of internal restraint. How realistic this scenario is remains an open question, but his warnings increasingly sound like an alarm signal for European capitals and Israel’s regional allies. This is why such assessments are closely monitored by analysts and editorial offices, including NAnews — Israel News | Nikk.Agency, considering them as part of a broader picture of future security.