- January 1, 2026
- 6:04 pm
- World News
The year 2025 went down in history as the year when conflicts ceased to be regional and began to merge into a single chain of instability. Clashes between Thailand and Cambodia, the escalation between India and Pakistan — two nuclear powers, the direct confrontation between Israel and Iran, the end of the war in Gaza without a final settlement, the stalemated war in Ukraine, military coups in West Africa, mass massacres in Sudan and Congo — none of this seemed like exceptions. It became a system.
Against this backdrop, Europe and other regions of the world began an accelerated buildup of military capabilities — at a pace not seen in decades. Russia is acting more boldly, China more assertively, and the US is concentrating significant forces in the Caribbean. The combination of these processes forms an extremely tense picture for 2026.
Below are the key risk points where the next year could become pivotal.
The most explosive zone: China, Taiwan, and the Far East
Western analysts increasingly refer to 2027 as the unofficial deadline for a possible conflict around Taiwan. Chinese President Xi Jinping, who has concentrated unprecedented power in his hands, has openly set the task of preparing the People’s Liberation Army for a forceful scenario.
Taiwan has effectively existed as an independent state since 1949, but Beijing continues to consider it a rebellious province. With the start of 2026, tensions are noticeably increasing: Chinese military exercises are increasingly practicing scenarios of blockade and encirclement of the island.
Japan, previously extremely cautious in its formulations, has begun to publicly hint at possible participation in the defense of Taiwan. These statements come against the backdrop of increasingly aggressive rhetoric from Beijing and heighten anxiety in the region.
The Taiwan Strait plays a special role — an artery through which about half of the world’s maritime cargo traffic passes. Any incident here could trigger a chain reaction affecting Korea, the Philippines, Japan, and the entire Pacific region. Against the backdrop of the concentration of American forces in the Caribbean, Beijing may decide to test the limits of Washington’s strategic ambiguity.
Weakening of the “Shiite axis”: Middle East
The Middle East is traditionally perceived as a region where escalation often seems manageable. In 2026, this perception may prove deceptive.
Iran, Hamas, and the Houthis enter the year with weakened positions. A number of key figures in the pro-Iranian camp have been eliminated. The removal of leaders such as Hassan Nasrallah has undermined previous coordination mechanisms. New commanders have been unable to restore the previous level of deterrence.
This has led to the breaking of tacit taboos. Voices from Beirut and Aden increasingly allow for negotiations with Jerusalem. The very fact of such statements seemed impossible just a few years ago.
In Yemen, the situation is taking on a paradoxical character. Separatist forces are strengthening and striving to overthrow the Houthis, but Saudi Arabia — their longtime adversary — threatens strikes against the separatists if they do not recognize the authority of the exiled government in Sana’a.
In Syria, tensions are rising around the course of the government of Ahmad al-Sharaa, which is promoting strict centralization and Sunni legislation. Three key players oppose this: Druze leader Hikmat al-Hijri, Alawite sheikh Ghazal Ghazal, and Kurdish general Mazloum Abdi, who demands official recognition of Kurdish autonomy. Damascus’s refusal to compromise could simultaneously open several fronts.
Europe and Russia: war is already near
February 28, 2025, became a symbolic date for transatlantic relations. After a public conflict in the White House, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky was effectively shown the door. The signal was crystal clear: American involvement is not guaranteed.
The updated US national security strategy showed a massive shift from the model that defined European security after World War II and especially after the collapse of the USSR.
Attempts to stop the war in Ukraine are stalling, despite the optimistic rhetoric of the American president. In Europe, scenarios of direct conflict with Russia are increasingly being discussed. The response has been rearmament on a scale unseen since the Cold War.
At the NATO summit in The Hague, countries agreed on the goal of increasing military spending to 5% of GDP by 2035. The European Commission presented a rearmament plan worth 800 billion euros. Germany, France, and the United Kingdom announced new waves of conscription.
In fact, the conflict is already underway. Drones disrupt air traffic over Europe, sabotage on railways is recorded in Poland, and hybrid warfare attributed to the Kremlin is reaching its peak. The question of provocations in the Baltic countries is becoming louder.
The NATO Secretary-General has designated 2029 as a target for full readiness. But it is 2026 that may become the year when the trajectory becomes irreversible.
Africa: coups and the rise of jihad
In West Africa, 2026 could be decisive. The region is increasingly plunging into confrontation between states and Islamist groups operating across borders and eroding sovereignty.
The region is splitting. ECOWAS countries lean towards the West. Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger, which have experienced military coups, are forming an alternative bloc with a clear orientation towards Russia and China.
In Mali, the situation is close to critical. The group “Jama’at Nusrat al-Islam,” linked to Al-Qaeda, has approached Bamako. There is a real risk of losing the capital. The same forces are active in Niger and Burkina Faso. In response, the three countries announced the creation of the “Sahel Regional Forces.”
In Central Africa, the conflict in the eastern part of the Democratic Republic of Congo continues unabated. M23 militants, supported by Rwanda, continue to seize territories, threatening the stability of the entire region.
Caribbean and Latin America: the return of the Monroe Doctrine
“Venezuela is surrounded by the largest fleet in South American history,” wrote Donald Trump. And it was no exaggeration. The American military presence in the region continues to grow, and the consequences of this move are difficult to predict.
Under the slogan “America First,” the Trump administration is actively operating outside the US while simultaneously claiming the Nobel Peace Prize. The Western Hemisphere is becoming a zone of special attention.
From Greenland to the Caribbean, from pressure on Venezuela to support for conservative leaders in Latin America — all this looks like a revival of the two-hundred-year-old Monroe Doctrine.
The main focus is the regime of Nicolás Maduro and drug trafficking. Seizures of oil tankers, naval operations, attempts to declare the regime a foreign terrorist organization — the pressure is increasing. The administration is clearly counting on a split within Caracas’s elites.
However, more direct use of force cannot be ruled out. And the question remains open: will it be limited to Venezuela? The US midterm elections in November could trigger an expansion of operations, including Colombia and Mexico — countries directly affecting US internal security.
The year 2026 begins without illusions. The world is entering a phase where local conflicts increasingly become elements of global confrontation. Understanding these processes is not a matter of theory but of survival, and this is precisely what NAnews — News of Israel | Nikk.Agency dedicates its attention to.
