- January 4, 2026
- 9:21 pm
- Brief news
The year 2026 may become the moment when the usual mechanisms of world governance cease to work. This conclusion follows from a large-scale forecast by the analytical publication Politico, which describes the near future as a period of deep geopolitical and financial upheavals. It is not about a series of separate crises, but about the overlay of conflicts, debts, and loss of trust — with a domino effect.
Ukraine: between the illusion of peace and the strategy of attrition
Despite Donald Trump’s loud statements about the ability to quickly stop the war, Politico analysts assess the reality much more harshly. They consider the likelihood of continued hostilities in 2026 to be four times higher than the chance of a quick end to the conflict.
For the Kremlin, a sharp exit from the war carries an existential risk. The economy and internal stability of Russia are largely tied to military mobilization and resource redistribution. A sudden peace could provoke an internal crisis for which the system is not ready.
Ukraine, in turn, enters 2026 with serious problems. A shortage of personnel, worn-out energy infrastructure, and constant strikes on the rear create an illusion for Moscow of the possibility to impose its conditions — weakening the Armed Forces of Ukraine and capturing new territories.
However, Russia’s own position remains unstable. High interest rates, a labor shortage in industry, and budget pressure form a debt loop that limits the ability to wage war indefinitely. The economic counterstrike may prove to be no less destructive than military failures.
Finances slip out of politicians’ control
One of the main actors of 2026, according to Politico, will not be presidents and governments, but bond markets. Analysts predict the return of so-called “bond vigilantes” — large investors who can punish states for irresponsible budget policies.
Even Trump at the beginning of his term was forced to adjust tariff plans under market pressure. The story of Liz Truss, who left the post of Prime Minister of the United Kingdom 49 days after the bond collapse, is seen as a warning for the US, Japan, and European countries living with chronic deficits.
The debts of Western economies have reached a dangerous level amid weak productivity growth. Investor confidence is becoming fragile, and any wrong decision can trigger a chain reaction.
Political stability despite crises
Politically, Politico does not expect sharp tectonic shifts in key countries. Even against the backdrop of conflicts and internal tensions, the existing balance of power, according to analysts, will largely remain.
In Israel, the current Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, despite public disputes, criticism, and protracted conflicts, remains the main contender for continuing his political career at the head of the government. His positions are assessed as stable.
A similar picture is painted for Hungary. Viktor Orban, despite opposition pressure and economic difficulties, still has enough support to win elections. His political system demonstrates high adaptability to crises.
In the US, on the contrary, the forecast is for the preservation of “divided power.” Democrats may regain control of the House of Representatives, while the positions of Republicans in the Senate look more solid and are likely to remain.
The banking system and the shadow of artificial intelligence
The global financial system is approaching a dangerous edge due to the rapid growth of private lending. Hedge funds and investment companies today control about 250 trillion dollars, operating outside of classical banking regulation.
If the private credit sector faces a serious shock, the consequences, according to Politico, could surpass the 2008 crisis. The situation is exacerbated by the “shadow banks'” bet on artificial intelligence. If the AI boom turns out to be a financial bubble, a chain reaction of bankruptcies will become almost inevitable.
In such a scenario, governments, especially populist ones, may simply lack the resources to save the system.
A year where old recipes don’t work
Politico’s forecast converges on one point: 2026 will be a test of strength for states, markets, and political models. Illusions of quick solutions disappear, and problems accumulated over decades surface simultaneously.
The world is entering a phase where the cost of mistakes rises sharply, and the room for maneuver shrinks. It is in this context that events around Ukraine, Israel, and the global economy will develop — processes that are systematically and closely monitored by NANews — News of Israel | Nikk.Agency.
