Iran is “surprised” by Israel's actions, Sky news reports

The speed and intensity of events make it impossible to predict what the consequences will be. The Middle East has been on the brink of large-scale war for the past year, but the situation has now become most dangerous due to Israeli attacks in Gaza, Yemen and Lebanon, which shows that the previous containment has been broken.

Iran has threatened a “strong response” to Israeli attacks on its allies in the region, but it turns out that Tehran was badly mistaken in assessing the risks Israel was willing to take. The Iranian side is wondering whether their nuclear facilities will become the next targets for Israel.

Despite ongoing Israeli actions, Iranian authorities may try to restore deterrence, although it may be too late. Israel is aiming its strikes at changing the balance of power in the region, where factions financed, equipped and trained by Iran have become a powerful force.

Matthew Saville, director of military science at the Royal United Nations Institute for Defense Studies, notes that Iran generally tries to avoid escalating into direct conflict with Israel. This time, however, they clearly underestimated Israel's willingness to take risks.