- October 8, 2024
- 12:06 am
- Middle East
Russia is seeking to benefit from the conflict between Israel and Iran using a scheme similar to its intervention in the Syrian war in 2015. Putin’s main goal is to strengthen his position in the international arena, to become a “necessary negotiator” and, as the deputy director explained Center for Middle Eastern Studies Sergei Danilov, create a situation in which “it will be impossible not to talk to him.”
An example of this is the recent statement by the Israeli Embassy in Moscow, emphasizing the importance of bilateral relations with Russia, which indicates the possibility of this scenario.
For Israel, such interference from Russia poses a serious threat. Moscow actively supports forces hostile to Israel, including Iran, Hamas and Hezbollah. If Russia becomes a mediator, its support for Iran could prolong the conflict and strengthen the position of Israel’s enemies. This could lead to even greater tension, especially as Iran seeks nuclear weapons and is building up its military capabilities through proxy groups such as Hamas and Hezbollah.
Danilov recalls:
“Putin’s goal is to return to the international stage so that people can talk to him.”
This is also partly in line with US interests in the region, which may agree to the participation of Russia or China as intermediaries to contain Iran –
“It is in the interests of the United States for someone to hold Iran’s hands, Russia or China.”
However, such intervention could significantly change the balance of power in the region. The director of the Center for Middle Eastern Studies, Igor Semivolos, adds that “the Russians are selling themselves short” and are acting in a way to bargain for status without direct interference on Iran’s side.
“The Russians are selling themselves short. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu allegedly tried to call Putin before the Iranian strike, but without success, says Semivolos. “The Russians will bargain for their status without directly interfering in the conflict on the Iranian side.”
Experts also warn that such an escalation of the conflict threatens negative consequences for Ukraine and the world as a whole. A possible rise in oil prices will be beneficial to Russia, which will destabilize the economy and could worsen the energy crisis, causing new flows of refugees to Europe. This will divert Western resources away from supporting Ukraine, which is a key strategy for Moscow. Analyst Kusa also emphasizes that in the event of an escalation, polarization between the West and non-West may increase, which will put additional pressure on world politics.
And although the only positive for Ukraine in this situation could be a possible reduction or complete cessation of arms supplies from Iran to Russia, the danger of escalation and the involvement of third parties in the conflict could significantly change the balance of power in the region and in the international arena.
