Recognized Separatism: Why Israel Took a Step with Somaliland and How This Could Affect Ukraine

Israel’s decision to recognize Somaliland’s independence became one of the most resonant diplomatic moves at the end of the year. On December 26, 2025, Jerusalem officially announced the recognition of the self-proclaimed state in northern Somalia — a region that has de facto existed separately since 1991 but has almost no international recognition.

Until this moment, only Taiwan — a country with its own complex status in the international relations system — had taken such a step. Now Israel has joined, doing so publicly and demonstratively: the declaration of mutual recognition was signed by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, Foreign Minister Gideon Sa’ar, and Somaliland President Abdirahman Mohamed Abdullahi. The document explicitly mentions the “spirit of the Abraham Accords,” which Somaliland expressed a desire to join.

Immediate World Reaction

Jerusalem’s decision triggered an emergency meeting of the UN Security Council. 21 countries, including Qatar and Egypt, issued a joint statement calling Israel’s actions a “gross violation of the principles of international law.”

The statement mentioned “serious consequences for peace and security in the Horn of Africa region and the Red Sea basin.” In fact, Israel was made to understand that the recognition of Somaliland is perceived as the legalization of separatism and undermining the basic principle of inviolability of borders.

What Lies Behind Jerusalem’s Decision

The publication The Times of Israel attempted to explain the motives of the Israeli leadership. According to journalists, Somaliland President Abdirahman Abdullahi secretly visited Israel in October, where he held meetings with Benjamin Netanyahu, Mossad chief David Barnea, and Defense Minister Yoav Katz.

Initially, contacts arose in the context of finding countries willing to accept residents of the Gaza Strip during the war. This plan provoked a sharp international reaction and was ultimately not implemented, but relations between Jerusalem and Hargeisa did not end there.

The key factor is geography. Somaliland is located in the strategically important Horn of Africa region, in close proximity to Yemen. Control over the airspace and ports of this region potentially facilitates monitoring of Iran-backed Houthis and allows influence over maritime trade routes.

Military-Strategic Calculation

Back in November, analysts from the Israeli Institute for National Security Studies wrote that Somaliland could become a forward base for intelligence missions: gathering information on the Houthis, intercepting drone attacks, and providing logistical support to forces fighting against them in Yemen.

However, the experts themselves emphasized that despite the attractiveness of such a scenario, recognizing Somaliland’s independence carries serious political risks — especially until the US or at least the UAE takes a similar step.

“A Symbolic Gesture Without Dividends”

Director of the Center for Middle Eastern Studies Igor Semivolos, for lb.ua, believes that in the short term, Jerusalem is unlikely to gain real benefits.

“I don’t think the Israelis will manage to build a military base or something similar there — there are no resources for such operations now. Talks about controlling the space seem utopian, especially considering that Somaliland does not even control all the claimed territories,” the expert notes.

According to him, it is more about “adding fuel to the fire” of the Somali conflict. Until recently, there was hope that self-proclaimed entities could be formalized as autonomies within a united Somalia. The joint step of Somaliland and Israel has effectively crossed out this prospect.

A Precedent Previously Avoided

“This is Israel’s political game in the region. And in some sense — an innovation: previously, it avoided steps that directly fueled separatism in Arab countries,” Semivolos emphasizes.

He recalls that similar, but less large-scale actions were taken by Jerusalem in Syria, supporting the Druze and Kurds, thereby strengthening their autonomous aspirations.

Several Motives at Once

Editor-in-chief of the publication “Ukraine in Arabic” Mohammad Farajallah believes that Israel had several motives at once.

“In Israel’s doctrine since the time of Ben-Gurion, the idea is embedded: it cannot exist among strong and large Arab states, they need to be weakened,” he says.

In his view, Somaliland is a successful combination of geography and political vacuum: access to the sea, influence on trade routes, the ability to pressure the Houthis, and indirect influence on Yemen, Sudan, Egypt, and Ethiopia.

“Having received recognition, Somaliland will feel extremely obligated. And Israel may be counting on the placement of an intelligence center or unpublicized military infrastructure,” Farajallah adds.

Risks for Israel Itself

At the same time, the expert emphasizes that the argument about the “Houthi threat” seems weak. In the event of a large-scale attack, Israel already receives support from NATO and US air forces. In his opinion, the Houthis are more of a convenient pretext than a real reason.

Moreover, this step is already undermining Israel’s positions in the region. Egypt views the recognition of Somaliland as a threat to its national security. In Sudan and other African countries, irritation is growing. And most importantly, the logic of the 1979 peace treaty between Egypt and Israel is being questioned.

Why This Is Important for Ukraine

Experts agree that the legalization of separatism is dangerous not only for Africa. If the international community “swallows” the recognition of Somaliland, it will create a dangerous precedent.

“Somaliland is the same type of enclave as Transnistria, the DPR, or the LPR: an entity that has existed for decades without recognition. The principle of inviolability of borders is one of the few that still holds the world order,” Farajallah emphasizes.

Much depends on the US position on this issue. So far, Washington has officially stated that it does not recognize Somaliland and has not changed its policy. But even neutral formulations at the UN cause concern among experts.

Conclusion

Jerusalem’s decision to recognize Somaliland looks like a risky geopolitical bet with an unclear win and potentially serious consequences — for the Middle East and Africa, as well as for Ukraine.

This is a step that could turn out to be either a “stormy nothing” or the beginning of a chain reaction eroding international law. That is why it is important for the Ukrainian side to carefully analyze what is happening and draw its own conclusions — in a world where rules are increasingly being tested for strength.

These are the intersections of global politics and regional consequences that we analyze and explain at NAnews — Israel News | Nikk.Agency.