IN Financial Times On September 7, 2024, the first ever general article was published CIA chief William Burns and MI6 chief Richard MooreIn it, the heads of American and British intelligence warn of the most serious threat to world order since the Cold War, which is provoked by a number of factors.
CIA Director William Burns stressed that Ukraine's offensive in Kursk, which he called a “significant tactical achievement,” had caused “serious concern among the Russian elite.” It showed the vulnerability of the Russian military, which casts doubt on Moscow's ability to wage a protracted war. Burns noted that while the operation had raised questions among the Russian leadership, it “does not look like an event that will end the conflict anytime soon.” However, he did not rule out that the offensive could change the course of the standoff.
MI6 chief Richard Moore added that Ukraine's operation was a “bold and audacious attempt to change the course of the war.” He stressed that it demonstrated the tactical prowess of Ukrainian troops and “brought the war home to ordinary Russians,” which could influence how the war is perceived within Russia. However, it remains an open question whether Ukrainian forces will be able to hold on to the territory they have captured in the long term, as the Russian army continues to focus on storming Ukraine's eastern regions, particularly Pokrovsk.
One of the key points made by both intelligence chiefs is Russia’s growing cooperation with Iran, China, and North Korea. Burns said Iran is already providing significant military assistance to Russia, supplying drones that are being used in the war against Ukraine. However, the bigger concern is the possible supply of ballistic missiles. If Iran were to begin supplying them, it would be a “significant escalation of the conflict,” requiring serious consequences for Iran from the United States and its allies. While U.S. media have reported on such transfers, Burns said there is no direct evidence of missile transfers.
Burns and Moore also touched on Russia’s cooperation with China. While there is currently no evidence that China is supplying weapons to Russia, US and UK intelligence agencies continue to closely monitor their defense cooperation. Burns also noted that Russian intelligence operations have intensified in Europe, including sabotage and destabilization to undermine support for Ukraine. Moore added that Russian intelligence services are becoming increasingly “reckless,” using any means necessary to destabilize the situation.
Burns also drew attention to the activity of Russian agents in the United States and Mexico. According to him, Russian agents are using migration flows to destabilize the United States, especially in the run-up to the presidential election. He also mentioned the disinformation campaign carried out by Russian intelligence in the United States, including attempts to interfere in the election by supporting Donald Trump. As an example, he cited the arrest of RT employees for funding disinformation campaigns.
In his speech, Burns stressed that Western countries should not give in to Russia's threats of possible escalation of the conflict and must continue to support Ukraine. He noted that the CIA and MI6 had tripled funding for their China departments, viewing China as “the main intelligence and geopolitical challenge of the 21st century.”
Burns and Moore paid special attention to Iran and its role in the Middle East. They noted the difficult negotiations to reach a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas, stressing that the “last 10%” of the agreement remains the most difficult. Burns pointed out the importance of both sides making “hard compromises” to end the conflict.
The statement is significant for both Ukraine and Israel. On the one hand, it highlights the growing threat to Ukraine from Russia’s increased military cooperation with Iran and China. Ballistic missiles and other weapons, if transferred, could strengthen Russia’s military capabilities, making it more difficult for Ukrainian forces to counterattack and prolonging the war.
On the other hand, Israel faces even greater threats from Iran, which could expand its influence in the region through its support for Russia. Iran’s increased military cooperation with Moscow could give Iran the ability to exert greater pressure on Israel, especially through its support for groups such as Hamas. Moreover, the difficulties in reaching a ceasefire in Gaza suggest that the conflict could drag on, which would negatively impact Israel’s security.
Thus, the actions of Russia and its allies directly affect both countries. Ukraine faces the risk of prolonging the war if Iran and other countries begin actively transferring weapons, and Israel faces the risk of increased Iranian influence in the region. Western allies, in turn, must continue to strengthen their support for Ukraine and counteract the escalation of the conflict.
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