How Ukraine can respond to Iran's missile supplies to Putin, and what does Israel have to do with it

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Iran recently delivered more than 200 Fateh 360 ballistic missiles with a maximum range of 120 km to Russia. The missiles were delivered via Iran's Caspian Sea port of Amirabad and then via Russia's Olya port.

Information about the missile deliveries has been confirmed, and Ukraine expressed its indignationtelling Iran's Chargé d'Affaires Shahriyar Amuzegar that such actions “will have devastating and irreparable consequences” for bilateral relations. However, specific steps on the part of Ukraine have not yet been determined.

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This case is reminiscent of the situation in the fall of 2022, when Iran began supplying Shahed drones to Russia. Then Ukraine recalls its ambassador from Tehran and imposes 50-year sanctions on IranThese measures include ban on trade, transit, flights, investment and other forms of economic interaction with the Islamic Republic. However, despite these “measures”, Iran continues to support Russia by supplying it with weapons.

Now Kiev faces the challenge of how to respond to new deliveries of ballistic missiles.

Among the possible measures being discussed are severance of diplomatic relations with Iran. Previously, the Ukrainian leadership avoided this radical step, but in light of recent events, breaking off diplomatic relations may become a logical development. However, the practical impact of such a step on Iran will be insignificant, given that Trade and economic ties between Ukraine and Iran have virtually disappearedFor example, in the first half of 2023, exports from Ukraine to Iran amounted to zero, and imports of goods from Iran (mainly raisins, dates, pistachios) reached only $6.6 million.

One of Ukraine's possible responses is further increase pressure on Iran through international mechanismsincluding the UN. But this raises the question of how to convince international partners to take decisive measures against Iran.

Israel, which could become a key ally of Ukraine in this matter, is unlikely to enter into direct military-political cooperation with Kiev. As orientalist Vyacheslav Likhachev notes in ZNfor Israel, Putin remains an important partner capable of influencing the situation in the Middle East, and any drastic steps could provoke undesirable consequences for Jerusalem. Israel also fears that in response to cooperation with Ukraine, Iran could intensify its actions against Israel with the support of Russia.

Moreover, active military-technical cooperation with Israel may seem “toxic” to many Arab countries that are interested in maintaining stability and minimizing escalations. As Likhachev noted, Arab countries are concerned about abrupt changes in the balance of power, and they prefer to avoid uncontrolled escalation due to events that seem distant to them.

In this difficult situation Ukraine should seek support from Western countries, including the US and the EU. However, despite calls for tough sanctions against Iran, Western countries have been slow to take radical steps. One factor holding them back is the desire to resume negotiations on the nuclear deal with Tehran.

For the West, especially the US and the EU, Iran's frozen assets and the nuclear deal remain more important than missile deliveries to Moscow.Iran probably realizes that the supply of ballistic missiles will not become a key issue in Western-Iranian relations and has calculated the possible risks.

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However, as expert Igor Semivolos notes, Tehran needs support from Moscow as Iran faces economic difficulties, including a budget deficit, and does not rule out the possibility of armed conflict with IsraelMoscow, in turn, can offer Tehran weapons and political support in exchange for missile supplies.

For Ukraine, the limitations of available measures of influence on Iran are obvious. Kyiv must continue to seek international support to punish Iran for its role in supporting Russian aggression. This may include not only diplomatic efforts, but also further attempts to isolate Iran and Russia on the international stage. It is important to continue to seek fair punishment for Tehran’s participation in the war against Ukraine, despite all the difficulties Kyiv faces in this fight.

The history of relations between Ukraine and Iran has always been complex and controversial, especially against the backdrop of political, economic and military events of recent decades.

Until 2014, relations between the two countries developed mainly in the economic sphere. Ukraine exported metallurgy products to Iran, the agricultural sector actively traded grain and other products, and negotiations were also held on energy cooperation. Iran, in turn, supplied agricultural products such as dates, raisins, and pistachios to Ukraine. It is important to note that there was no significant political cooperation in these relations, but the parties maintained diplomatic contacts and developed trade.

However, the crisis in the relationship began in 2014, when Russia annexed Crimea and started a war in Donbass.

Iran, being a traditional ally of Moscow, did not support Ukraine on international platforms and did not condemn Russia's actions. This was the first sign of deterioration in relations, which finally deteriorated against the backdrop of events related to Moscow's armed support in the war against Ukraine.

The biggest blow to Ukrainian-Iranian relations came in 2020, when Iranian air defense forces accidentally shot down a Ukraine International Airlines passenger plane in the skies over Tehran. The tragedy claimed the lives of 176 people, including Ukrainian citizens. Although Iran admitted its guilt, diplomatic relations between the countries sharply deteriorated, and Ukraine demanded a fair investigation and compensation for the families of the victims. The incident caused a huge wave of indignation in Ukrainian society, and the government increased pressure on Iran in the international arena.

The situation worsened further in the fall of 2022, when it became known that Iran was supplying Russia with Shahed drones, which were used to attack Ukrainian cities and infrastructure.

The arms supply issue has become the main source of conflict between Ukraine and Iran. Kyiv has accused Tehran of direct involvement in Russian aggression and threatened “destructive consequences” for bilateral relations, although in reality, these relations have practically disappeared.

Today, the prospects for restoring relations between Ukraine and Iran look extremely dubious. Iran continues to support Russia in its war against Ukraine, and the Ukrainian side, in turn, is increasing Iran's international isolation by cooperating with Western partners and calling for tougher sanctions.

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