- December 8, 2024
- 7:04 pm
- Middle East
Everything Russia's allies need to know about the security guarantees provided by Moscow.
“Assad has fallen. This is the inevitable fate of all dictators who rely on Putin. He always betrays those who rely on him…”said Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andriy Sibiga.
It is not yet clear whether Israel will continue its “romance with Putin” after the coup in Syria, and what now awaits the Kremlin’s allies.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who has demonstrated “loyalty” to Moscow over the past years, now finds himself in a “difficult situation.” Previously, his desire to balance between the West and Russia was explained by the desire to contain Iranian influence in Syria, but the collapse of the Assad regime and the instability of Russian positions call into question the appropriateness of such a policy.
“Israel has developed an entire concept based on the assumption that the Assad regime is stable, Russian support is unwavering, and the “Syrian army is recovering” – this is the conclusion recently presented by AMAN,” writes Ynet.
“This assessment led Israel to try to improve relations with Russia and Assad himself in order to force him to distance himself from Hezbollah.”
“It was previously mentioned that Israel plans to involve Russia in a settlement in Lebanon, offering it a deal: stability and legitimation of the Assad regime in exchange for an end to the restoration of Hezbollah.”
With fantastic ease, Russia forgot about its obligations to Assad, and about its own citizens, and about its military contingent. There are a huge number of Russian fighters and equipment in Syria. The losses are colossal. Russian propagandists report that they are sorry that no one can be taken out.
The Assad family regime, which held power over Syria for more than 50 years, fell in a matter of days. All internal and external “friends” refused to help the autocrat. But Putin proudly promised: “If terrorists raise their heads again,” the Russian army from bases in Tartus and Khmeimim “will deal them blows that they have not yet seen.”
It is not yet clear whether Netanyahu will continue his “romance with Putin” after the coup in Syria: lessons from Ukraine for Israel
The events of recent days in Syria open a new stage in world geopolitics. The overthrow of Bashar al-Assad's regime and the rapid advance of the opposition not only caught international intelligence agencies by surprise, but also raised a key question for Israel: how now to build relations with Russia, which has failed in its attempts to maintain its influence in Syria?
This situation is relevant not only for Israel, but also for the whole world, which has already observed a similar scenario in Ukraine. After Russia's full-scale invasion in February 2022, it became obvious that the Kremlin is incapable of being a reliable partner, and its “security guarantees” are turning into destructive wars, humanitarian disasters and regional destabilization.
Why is a “romance with Putin” no longer possible?
Israel has long had a difficult relationship with Russia, trying to balance between the need to neutralize Iranian influence in Syria and maintaining a strategic partnership with the West. However, the events in Damascus became a watershed.
The collapse of the Assad regime, which the Kremlin supported for more than a decade, demonstrated the weakness of the Russian military and Moscow's inability to maintain control over its allies. This situation calls into question the strategy of the Israeli government, which sought to use Russia as a tool to limit the influence of Iran and Hezbollah in the region.
Key lessons for Israel:
- Russia's unreliability: After the Russian military left Tartus and Khmeimim, it became clear that Moscow could not provide long-term support to its partners.
- Risks of diplomacy with an aggressor: Israel, trying to improve relations with Russia, risks losing the support of democratic countries.
- Parallels with Ukraine: As in the case of Crimea and Donbass, Russia has demonstrated that its actions lead to destruction and loss of stability.
Parallels with Ukraine: war and betrayal
Ukraine has been at the forefront of the fight against Russian aggression for more than ten years. Beginning with the annexation of Crimea in 2014, the Kremlin continued its strategy of destabilization, sparking a war in the Donbass and then moving on to a full-scale invasion.
Events in Syria are similar to the Ukrainian scenario:
- Moscow's promises: Russia guaranteed Assad’s safety, but its actions led to the collapse of his regime.
- Military weakness: In both Ukraine and Syria, the Russian army has demonstrated a low level of preparation and strategic planning.
- World isolation: The Kremlin's military failures only increase its isolation in the international arena.
Quote:
“The fall of Assad is not just the collapse of one regime, it is a signal to all of Russia’s allies that its promises are a trap leading to disaster.”
Impact on the Middle East
The collapse of the Assad regime was not only a blow to Moscow, but also a serious challenge for the Middle East. The completed coup completely changes the balance of power in the region, forcing key players – Israel, Turkey, Iran and the United States – to reconsider their strategies.
Table: Russian losses in Syria
| Losses | Description |
|---|---|
| Military bases | Loss of Tartus and Khmeimim, evacuation of the fleet and equipment |
| Political influence | Breaking agreements with the opposition, revising international agreements |
| Guarantor's reputation | Complete failure to protect its ally, weakening trust in Moscow |
Israel, with its historical desire for security, must take this new reality into account. Maintaining relations with Moscow in the current conditions is becoming not only useless, but also dangerous.
Ukraine and Israel: common challenges
Ukraine and Israel, as two democratic countries under constant threat of external aggression, have many common challenges. Both states are faced with the need to resist dictatorial regimes and maintain their sovereignty.
Direct lessons from Ukraine for Israel:
- You shouldn’t rely on the Kremlin’s promises—they always turn into disasters.
- An international coalition is the only path to security.
- Cooperation with the aggressor undermines the trust of allies and leads to isolation.
Quote:
“Ukraine taught the world that compromises with the aggressor are unacceptable. Israel must use this experience to base its policies on alliances with democratic states.”
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