- February 21, 2026
- 8:39 pm
- World News
After the start of Russia’s war against Ukraine, many analysts began talking about the end of the old world order. The founder of Geopolitical Futures, George Friedman, asserts: the Cold War is effectively over, but the illusion that ‘middle powers’ can replace the great ones does not withstand scrutiny by the numbers.
The occasion for the discussion was a speech by Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney in Davos, where he proposed the idea of an alliance of middle powers — from Canada and Australia to Japan and EU countries — as an alternative to the dominance of the US and China.
Arithmetic against the dream
Two powers — half of the world economy
The United States forms about a quarter of the world economy. China — about 20%. Almost half of the global GDP is concentrated in the hands of two countries.
The remaining 55% is distributed among dozens of countries, of which only about eight have a GDP of over one trillion dollars. Even if they combine their efforts, the economic scale remains fragmented.
Canada directs about 75% of its exports to the US and about 15% to China. Losing both markets would require alternatives of comparable scale. Such markets do not exist.
Without security, there is no economy
Friedman emphasizes: wealth without power is vulnerable. Export-oriented countries need markets and security guarantees. Germany cannot ensure the security of South Korea. South Korea cannot replace the American market for Europe.
The idea of ‘like-minded’ is attractive in rhetoric, but when trying to translate it into an economic model, structural contradictions arise.
In this context, NAnews — Israel News | Nikk.Agency notes that the discussion about ‘middle powers’ reflects a psychological reaction to the change in the balance of power, rather than a new sustainable system.
USA and Canada: dependence without divorce
Economic intertwinement
Friedman compares the relationship between the US and Canada to a marriage that cannot be dissolved. The Canadian economy is deeply integrated into the American one: three-quarters of exports are directed south.
At the same time, the United States depends on Canada in defense matters. NORAD and the Arctic direction remain key elements of North American security.
Even with political frictions, both sides maintain mutual strategic necessity.
Illusion of distancing
Attempts to distance from the US come up against a simple question: what can replace the largest market and military guarantor? Europe and Asia are economically and geographically scattered, their interests are heterogeneous.
In geopolitics, Friedman emphasizes, it is not emotions that matter, but imperatives — economy and security.
Cuba: pressure without invasion
Isolation strategy
After the operation against the Venezuelan regime and the cessation of oil supplies, Cuba found itself in a difficult economic situation. The US is increasing pressure, hoping for an internal transformation of the regime.
However, direct military intervention is considered unlikely. Occupying the island would require significant resources and would be accompanied by serious risks.
Serial threats instead of serial wars
Friedman notes that the current American strategy is characterized not by large-scale conflicts, but by sequential threats and targeted actions. Venezuela, Iran, Cuba — these are elements of pressure, not full-scale campaigns.
The US uses economic and diplomatic tools, minimizing direct military involvement.
Transition, not collapse
Comparing the situation to 1945, Friedman talks about a transition to a new system. Then Europe lost its status as a center of power, giving way to the US and the USSR. Today, Russia has demonstrated the limitations of its capabilities in Ukraine, and the US is reassessing the extent of its global presence.
Old norms are weakening, but this does not mean the disappearance of great powers. Economic concentration and military power still determine the rules of the game.
The idea of an alliance of middle powers is a reaction to dominance, but not its replacement. Numbers remain the decisive argument.
