Russia, Syria and Ukraine: will Moscow be able to strengthen the “Ukrainian front” by evacuating its contingent from the Levant?

The fall of Bashar al-Assad's regime in Syria at the end of 2024 raised a wave of questions about the possible consequences for the war in Ukraine. The Russian Federation, a key ally of Assad since 2015, faces a dilemma: how to organize the evacuation of its forces from the region and maintain the remaining bases.

At the same time, many wonder Can Russia use the withdrawal of troops from Syria to strengthen its position on the Ukrainian front?.

The evacuation of Russian troops from Syria, caused by the fall of the Bashar al-Assad regime, has more symbolic than strategic significance for the war in Ukraine.

Despite the size of the Russian contingent in Syria (about 7.5 thousand military personnel), its composition, technical support and logistical difficulties, writes BBCdo it is unlikely that the Ukrainian front will be significantly strengthened due to the transfer of these resources.

Russian military presence in Syria: numbers and facts

1. Number of troops:
   According to the BBC, in the spring of 2024 there were about 7.5 thousand Russian military personnel. Most of them were stationed at the naval base in Tartus and the Khmeimim air base in Latakia.
2. Military equipment:
   • The bases are equipped with air defense systems such as the S-300 and Pantsir.
   • Includes combat aircraft and helicopters, although their models are outdated for modern conflicts.
3. Historical role of Syria:
   Since 2015, Russia has used Syria as a logistics hub for operations in Africa (Sudan, Libya, Central African Republic) and to strengthen its influence in the Mediterranean.

Difficulties of evacuation: logistics and resources

Experts point to significant difficulties in the transfer of Russian forces from Syria. Military analyst Nikolai Beleskov noted in an interview with the BBC that this process could take months or even yearsespecially in the context of a worsening situation for Russia.

Main obstacles:

• Logistics: Türkiye does not allow warships to cross the Bosphorus, which complicates the transport of equipment and troops.
• Risks in the region: Syrian rebels may seize some equipment or interfere with the evacuation.
• Resources: The withdrawal of troops will require significant financial and material costs, which Russia is now forced to spend on the war in Ukraine.

Quote from Dmitry Peskov, Kremlin press secretary:

“Maintaining a presence at bases in Syria remains a subject of negotiations. We are working to ensure the safety of our troops.”

Impact on the Ukrainian front

Potential Gain:

• Even if some troops are transferred to Ukraine, their influence will be limited.
• From 7.5 thousand people a significant part are technical personnel, sailors and service personnel who are not intended for active combat operations.

Comparison with the current situation:

• For context: only on the front line in Ukraine will Russia use the order 300 thousand soldiers. Adding several thousand troops from Syria will not radically change the situation.

Equipment and machinery:

• According to military observer Ilya Barabanov (BBC), the equipment available in Syria is mostly outdated and poorly prepared for intense fighting in Ukraine.

Israel's reaction to events in Syria

Israel, which traditionally monitors events in the region, is concerned about the possible transfer of Russian equipment to Syrian rebels or Iran.

Why is this important for Israel?

1. Iranian factor: Increased Iranian influence in Syria could increase the threat to Israel.
2. Military instability: The movement of Russian troops and equipment creates a vacuum that pro-Iranian groups can fill.

Possible Israeli actions:

• Continued monitoring of Russian bases in Tartus and Latakia.
• Strengthening cooperation with Ukraine to share intelligence and experience.

NAnews – Israel News recalls that relations between Israel and Ukraine have strengthened against the backdrop of a common threat from Russia and its allies.

Conclusion: what's next?

The evacuation of Russian troops from Syria raises many questions, but, according to experts, its impact on the war in Ukraine will be limited. Russia is already using all available resources on the Ukrainian front, and reinforcement at the expense of the Syrian contingent is unlikely.

It is important for Israel to monitor changes in Syria to avoid increasing Iranian influence in the region. The Ukrainian front remains a priority for Russia, but strategic and logistical constraints constrain the Kremlin's capabilities.

NAnews – Israel News continues to closely monitor developments, analyzing their implications for Israel, Ukraine and the region as a whole.

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