- January 6, 2025
- 1:54 pm
- World News
The American publication Politico published a list “black swans”which could happen in 2025. Thus, 15 futurologists, scientists, foreign policy analysts and other experts made forecasts for unpredictable, unlikely and explosive events that could occur during the year.
This is stated in the article on the website Politico.
According to Politico, in 2025 there will be a negotiated settlement to the war in Ukraine – “which is too likely to become a Black Swan.”
Possible “black swans” in 2025:
- Secret agreement to stop Iran developing nuclear weapons
- Resolving the conflict between Israelis and Palestinians based on the two-state principle
- Overthrow of the regime of Alexander Lukashenko.
- Unexpected geopolitical alliances and realignments – the United States in the Middle East.
- The biggest cyber attack in history.
- Clashes in the US over changes in state boundaries.
- A new large-scale epidemic.
- Alliance between Donald Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping.
- Global panic due to market collapse.
- Fighting climate change becomes the norm.
- South Korea's secret nuclear weapons program.
- The US Army is moving into the era of the unvaccinated.
- The loss of power will radically change the lives of Americans.
- The temptation to reach for nuclear tools may be too difficult to resist.
- A decisive breakthrough in quantum computing.
More details below……
What is a “Black Swan”
“Black swan” – the concept that hard-to-predict and rare events that have significant consequences have special characteristics.
The author of the concept is Nassim Nicholas Taleb, who in his book “Black Swan. Under the Sign of Unpredictability” (2007) used the term “black swan events” (English TBS, The Black Swan).
According to the criteria proposed by the author of the theory:
- The event is unexpected (for the expert);
- The event has significant consequences;
- After the occurrence, in retrospect, the event has a rationalistic explanation, as if the event was expected.
From the author’s point of view, almost all significant scientific discoveries, historical and political events, achievements of art and culture are “black swan” events. Examples of such events: the development and implementation of the Internet, World War I, the collapse of the Soviet Union, the 9/11 attacks and the global economic crisis. Taleb also notes that humanity is unable to successfully predict its future, and confidence in its knowledge is ahead of the knowledge itself and gives rise to the phenomenon of “overconfidence.”
Nassim Taleb believes that the role of “black swans” increases with the development of interconnections in the world.
Possible “black swans” in 2025
Secret agreement to stop Iran developing nuclear weapons
Experts have proposed a scenario where Putin contacts Donald Trump to discuss a secret agreement on Iran. Under the terms, Russia persuades Iran to halt nuclear weapons development for five years if Trump prevents an Israeli military strike. Trump, in turn, persuades Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to abandon the attack, offering guarantees from Saudi Arabia to normalize relations with Israel in exchange for this step.
Resolving the conflict between Israelis and Palestinians based on the two-state principle
Realizing the two-state principle will require the creation of a new Israeli government that distances itself from right-wing politicians. Israel may have to dismantle some of the settlements in the West Bank, as Ehud Barak proposed in 2000. The Palestinians will have to replace the current leadership and unite under a new leader capable of negotiation. Governing Gaza will require a separate agreement. All this will require the active support of large Arab countries such as Saudi Arabia and the UAE.
Overthrow of the regime of Alexander Lukashenko
Experts believe that Russia’s failure in the war against Ukraine could weaken Putin’s position, which will create conditions for a change in power in Belarus. The Belarusian people can take advantage of the situation to free themselves from the dictatorship of Alexander Lukashenko if Russia proves unable to support his regime.
Unexpected geopolitical alliances and realignments – the United States in the Middle East
- The Rise of Superintelligence and Quantum Computing: Breakthroughs in technology, including artificial superintelligence and quantum computing, could lead to rapid economic growth in new industries and dramatically change the geopolitical landscape. This could affect US relations with the Middle East, Europe, and also enhance economic development in Africa and India.
- Changes in the Middle East: Stabilization of the region is possible, including the end of hostilities in Gaza, Syria and Lebanon. However, this will require complex international coordination and significant efforts by all parties.
- Infrastructure vulnerability: Cyberattacks, natural disasters or solar flares can disrupt energy and communications systems, causing global impacts on the economy and everyday life.
The biggest cyber attack in history
The world could face the largest cyberattack in history, which would temporarily knock out much of the world's infrastructure. Such attacks may be aimed at extorting ransom or manipulating markets. With the development of generative artificial intelligence, which becomes more accessible and cheaper, this tool is increasingly used by attackers for such purposes.
US clash over state border changes
The scenario describes Trump's support for the idea of moving 15 counties from Oregon to Idaho, proposed by secessionists. This is leading to marches and protests for and against the new states, with possible clashes in the fall that police will try to control. Despite this, ideas for changing state boundaries will gain more legitimacy, leading to referendums and new initiatives next year.
New large-scale epidemic
A new infectious disease may arise, the symptoms of which will resemble the flu. The outbreak will start with zero patient returning from abroad, where more than 100 people have already died. The disease will soon spread across the United States, and authorities will impose control measures, including quarantine and social distancing. This will lead to an epidemic, an economic crisis and thousands of deaths, reminiscent of the consequences of a pandemic.
Alliance between Donald Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping
Trump's first term was marked by a trade war with China, but 2025 could see unexpected cooperation between him and Xi Jinping. Perhaps China will relax its ambitions, focusing on domestic economic problems, and the United States will change its priorities, including trying to end Russia's war against Ukraine.
Global panic due to market collapse
Artificial intelligence can analyze vast amounts of market data, including financial information and social media, to gauge public opinion. However, it can also be used to spread misinformation by creating rumors or false news, which can lead to market panic. This, in turn, will trigger massive market operations, causing economic collapse and global panic. Countermeasures will be complex and the consequences will be devastating for investors and financial markets around the world.
Fighting climate change becomes the norm
In 2024, there were 24 disasters in the United States, the cost of which exceeded a billion dollars. Support for climate action increases in 2025 as awareness of the risks of climate change grows. The anti-inflation law has spurred investment in clean energy, and public opinion is slowly shifting toward climate action becoming the norm. This could be a climate tipping point in 2025.
South Korea's Secret Nuclear Weapons Program
The script describes the shocking event where a nuclear test is unexpectedly carried out on the Korean Peninsula, and it is not in North Korea. South Korean President Lee Jae-man makes a big announcement, declaring his country a nuclear power and saying it will use Article X of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty to withdraw from it.
The US Army is moving into the era of the unvaccinated
According to the scenario, the US Secretary of Defense says that vaccination for the military will no longer be mandatory. Meanwhile, a dangerous strain of bird flu breaks out on a farm in Texas and spreads rapidly, infecting both farmers and the military. As a result, many sick people die, and the situation leads to military and government disruptions. Vaccinating military personnel overseas is becoming a priority, and Europe is demanding a U.S. troop withdrawal, reshaping global security and the economy.
The loss of power will radically change the lives of Americans
Energy demand will increase in 2025, which could lead to increased emissions and threats to energy security due to extreme weather conditions. There may also be risks for aging infrastructure, as in Cuba, where the destruction of the power grid will lead to long-term outages. In the US, many power lines are aging, increasing vulnerability. Cyberattacks on critical infrastructure can threaten national security, leading to political instability and urgent responses.
The temptation to reach for nuclear tools may be too difficult to resist
The Russian media discussed the possibility of using tactical nuclear weapons as a reaction to failures in the war with Ukraine. If nuclear powers such as Russia, China and North Korea take aggressive action against their neighbors in pursuit of “final victory” and experience setbacks, it may be tempting to resort to nuclear means to achieve their goals.
