- January 14, 2025
- 10:00 pm
- World News
European leaders, anxiously awaiting Donald Trump's return to power, have begun to express cautious optimism about his approach to Ukraine.
As written on January 14, 2025 Bloombergprivate conversations with the team of the future US president gave reason to believe that Trump will not push Kyiv into hasty negotiations with Moscow.
Europe is becoming more optimistic: Trump will not give up on Ukraine – the president-elect turned out to be more flexible than allies expected
Support for Ukraine: what will change with the new US administration?
While Trump campaigned on his desire to quickly end the war between Russia and Ukraine, his administration's actual plans appear more complex. European diplomats point to the following key aspects:
- Continued support for Kyiv.
The Trump team recognizes the need to strengthen Ukrainian positions so that any possible deal can be negotiated from a position of strength.
- Refusal of the “quick deal”.
Trump's earlier promises to end the war before his inauguration turned out to be unrealistic. Longer-term scenarios are now being discussed, including stabilization of the front line.
- The pursuit of the “deal of the century.”
Trump is interested in reaching a historic agreement that would strengthen his status as a major political player.
European optimism: cautious hopes
European leaders who feared Trump's chaotic approach are now signaling a more positive outlook. Thus, Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, after a visit to Mar-a-Lago, expressed confidence that the United States will continue to support Ukraine.
The main reasons for European optimism:
- Maintaining sanctions pressure on Moscow.
- Strengthening military assistance to Kyiv.
- Understanding the risks of weakening the West's position in front of China.
Table: Comparison of US and European approaches to the Ukrainian issue
| Factor | USA (Trump) | Europe |
|---|---|---|
| Target | Stabilizing the front, preparing a deal | Strengthening Ukraine's position |
| Sanctions against Russia | Preservation, possible enhancement | Continued economic isolation |
| Ukraine's membership in NATO | Postponed indefinitely | Long term goal |
| Military support | Support for negotiations from a position of strength | Increase in arms supplies |
“Deal of the Century”: what does the Trump team offer?
One of Trump's top advisers, Keith Kellogg, proposed a scheme to freeze the front line and create a demilitarized zone. This approach assumes:
- Refusal of Ukraine's immediate membership in NATO.
- Creation of international security guarantees.
- Long-term debate about the involvement of US forces in the event of new aggression.
This approach aims to prevent escalation, but raises questions in Kyiv and Europe.
Criticism of the new approach
Despite statements of support, experts express concerns:
- Lack of determination. There are risks that protracted negotiations will strengthen Russia's position.
- Lack of a clear strategy. So far, the Trump team does not have a concrete plan to end the war.
- Declining interest in Ukraine. Trump has previously demonstrated skepticism about Ukraine's strategic importance to the United States.
Conclusion
Although the incoming Donald Trump administration raises concerns, Europe and Ukraine see its statements as an opportunity for continued support. Preparations for the “deal of the century” are proceeding slowly, which gives time to strengthen Ukrainian positions.
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