The Middle East strengthens its position: why Israel is becoming more important for the export of Ukrainian flour while the EU loses its share

Ukrainian wheat flour exports in the 2025/26 season maintain relative stability in volumes but significantly change their geography. While the European market recently seemed to be the main target for suppliers, there is now a noticeable shift in demand towards the Middle East and countries neighboring Ukraine. This trend is particularly interesting for Israel: the country is already among the largest buyers of Ukrainian flour, and amid the restructuring of logistics and competition within the European Union, its role may become even more prominent.

This was reported by “Ukrainian Millers“.

The dynamics themselves show an important shift. From July to March, Ukraine exported 48.3 thousand tons of flour compared to 49.8 thousand tons for the same period last season. Formally, this looks like a slight decrease, but what is more important is that the share of EU countries in the export structure decreased from 44% to 35%. That is, the market did not collapse, but its center of gravity is gradually shifting.

Why the share of the European Union is decreasing, and the Middle East is strengthening

The main conclusion from these figures is that Ukrainian flour exports are becoming less dependent solely on Europe. This does not mean a complete withdrawal from the EU market, but it shows that the European direction no longer looks unconditionally dominant.

There are several reasons for this restructuring. The European market remains important, but there is higher competition, more complex price pressure, and more sensitive logistical costs. Moreover, for Ukrainian producers, it is becoming increasingly important not to rely on a single macro-market but to distribute risks across several regions.

That is why the Middle East is gradually strengthening its significance. For Ukrainian exporters, this region is becoming not just an alternative but a full-fledged growth direction. Here, stable demand, the region’s food sensitivity, and broader opportunities for redistributing trade flows in a changing external environment are important.

Who is currently buying Ukrainian flour

Among the largest importers of Ukrainian wheat flour in the 2025/26 season are Moldova with a volume of 14.9 thousand tons, “Palestine” with 9.2 thousand tons, the Czech Republic with 7.4 thousand tons, Israel with 4.4 thousand tons, and Spain with 4.2 thousand tons.

This list is indicative in itself.

On the one hand, it still includes European countries, so it would be wrong to talk about the EU being “pushed to zero.” On the other hand, the Middle East no longer looks like a secondary direction. The presence of “Palestine” and Israel among the key buyers shows that demand in the region has ceased to be peripheral and directly affects the export balance of the Ukrainian milling industry.

Why this trend is important specifically for Israel

For the Israeli audience, this news has not only economic but also strategic significance. Israel remains a country for which the topic of food security, supply reliability, and import diversification always carries special weight. Against this backdrop, the strengthening of the Ukrainian presence in the Israeli flour market looks like part of a broader picture.

Ukraine, despite the war, continues to maintain export capabilities and reorient supplies. Israel, in turn, is among those countries that can benefit from such a restructuring of trade routes, especially if Ukrainian producers continue to seek more flexible and less congested sales markets.

Here, another circumstance is also important. If the share of the EU decreases, this does not necessarily indicate the weakness of the Ukrainian product. On the contrary, it may indicate the search for more profitable, sustainable, and less politically sensitive export directions. For Israel, such a situation opens a window of opportunity: Ukrainian flour is already present in the market, and with further redistribution of export flows, its role may grow.

NANews — Israel News | Nikk.Agency in this context can view this trend not as a narrowly specialized agricultural statistic but as part of a larger process in which Ukraine is restructuring foreign trade, and Middle Eastern countries are gaining more weight in its export architecture.

What statistics say about the future of Ukrainian exports

Alongside exports, Ukraine is also increasing flour imports: over nine months of the season, it grew to 2.3 thousand tons. This does not negate the country’s export role but emphasizes that the market is becoming more complex and multilayered.

At the same time, by the end of the entire marketing year, total flour exports may decrease to about 65 thousand tons. At first glance, this looks like a negative signal, but in reality, the indicator needs to be read more broadly. A decrease in total volume does not necessarily mean a weakening of Ukrainian positions as such. Sometimes it reflects not a loss of markets but their redistribution, route changes, increased competition, and an attempt to adapt to new trading conditions.

In this sense, the current statistics are important primarily not for absolute numbers but for the direction of movement. Ukraine is no longer just selling flour where it was historically more convenient. It is gradually building a more diversified model in which the Middle East and neighboring countries play an increasingly noticeable role.

How this may affect the market in Israel and the region

For Israel, the strengthening of the Ukrainian direction in flour supplies may mean more stable access to an important food resource, especially if logistics through European directions remain complex or less profitable for Ukrainian suppliers.

Moreover, the growing importance of the Middle East in Ukrainian exports may eventually lead to closer trade ties not only in flour but also in other categories of agricultural products. Where the structure of one commodity group changes first, other segments often begin to expand.

That is why the news about the redistribution of shares between the EU and the Middle East is important not only for agricultural analysts. It shows that the wartime economy forces Ukraine to act more flexibly, and Israel and the region as a whole have a chance to strengthen their role in the new map of Ukrainian food exports.