The Telegraph: The uprising in Syria could have a serious impact on the war in Ukraine

The situation in Syria is escalating again, and its development can lead to large-scale consequences for Russia’s military strategy. The potential loss of the Tartus naval base, Moscow's key asset in the Mediterranean, creates a dilemma for the Kremlin that could fundamentally change Russia's approach to the war in Ukraine.

According to The Telegraphthe loss of this base would be a serious blow for the Kremlin.

“The loss of Tartus will effectively destroy Russia’s power projection in the region. The only real way to compensate for this loss is to restore access to the Mediterranean through the Turkish straits.”writes columnist David Ax.

Russia uses Tartus as a logistics hub for its fleet, which lacks the capabilities for long-term maritime operations without regular supplies.

Russia has enjoyed expanded access to the Tartus naval base since 2017, which is the main supply point for its fleet in the region. This 49-year agreement with Syria allowed Russia to gain a foothold in the Mediterranean and put pressure on Southern Europe and North Africa.

However, the Russian fleet does not have a sufficient number of modern ships capable of operating autonomously for a long time. In this regard, Moscow relies on “coastal navigation” between ports, and the loss of Tartus would be a catastrophic blow for it.

Key scenarios for developments

If anti-government forces in Syria capture Aleppo and Hama, they could begin to advance towards the Mediterranean coast, threatening the Latakia region where Tartus is located.

Consequences for Russia:

1. Military loss:

   The loss of the base in Tartus will deprive Russia of its only point of presence in the region.

2. Political isolation:

   The loss of Tartus will weaken Russia's influence on Syria and its position in global politics.

3. Economic consequences:

   Losing control of the Mediterranean will complicate the logistics and operations of the Russian Navy.

Possible options for the Kremlin's actions:

• Continuation of the war in Ukraine:

  This will lead to the loss of Tartus and the weakening of Russia’s position in the Mediterranean.

• Attempt at reconciliation with Ukraine:

  The end of the conflict with Ukraine could pave the way for the restoration of access to the Turkish straits and, as a result, to the Mediterranean Sea.

Geopolitical impact of the conflict

The aggravation in Syria was the result of the stalled Russian invasion of Ukraine. Moscow was forced to reduce its military presence in Syria, which weakened the regime of Bashar al-Assad and allowed the rebels to go on the offensive.

Chain of consequences:

• The diversion of Russian resources to Syria will weaken its position in Ukraine.
• Israel, the US and Türkiye can increase their pressure on Russia by exploiting its vulnerability in Syria.
• Iran, which supports Assad, also risks increasing isolation and sanctions pressure.

The role of Israel and Turkey

Israel continues to attack Iranian targets in Syria while limiting the actions of the Assad regime. Türkiye, which controls the Bosporus and Dardanelles straits, is becoming a key player in resolving the issue of Russia's access to the Mediterranean Sea.

Prospects for Ukraine:

• Reduced Russian attention to Ukraine due to Syria.
• Strengthening international support for Ukraine.
• Weakening Russian influence in the region.

Table: Potential scenarios for the Kremlin

Conclusion: a choice for the Kremlin

Events in Syria are becoming a strategic challenge for Russia, threatening its military and political interests in the region. The loss of Tartus and the need to choose between war in Ukraine and regaining control of the Mediterranean could force Moscow to change its plans.

This opens up new opportunities for Ukraine. As noted The Telegraph, “The uprising in Syria is another nail in the coffin of Russia’s geopolitical ambitions”.

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