The war in Iran hit Ukraine, the West, and unexpectedly strengthened Russia

The war in Iran, initiated by the US and Israel on February 28, 2026, quickly ceased to be just a Middle Eastern conflict. According to the plans of Washington and Jerusalem, the military campaign was supposed to weaken Tehran, its oil capabilities, and proxy structures like Hezbollah. But by the end of April, it became clear: the cost of this operation turned out to be significantly higher than the initial estimates.

The main blow was not only to Iran. It was felt by the global economy, Europe, Ukraine, fuel consumers, farmers, airlines, and the budgets of countries already living in a state of military and inflationary tension. And one of the unexpected beneficiaries was Russia, which received a new flow of oil revenues amid the surge in raw material prices.

For Israel, this story is especially sensitive. On one hand, Iran remains a direct strategic threat to the Jewish state. On the other hand, any major fire in the Middle East instantly changes the region’s economy, increases pressure on Ukraine’s allies, and gives Moscow additional time to continue the war.

The Middle Eastern war became a global fuel shock

The first consequence of the campaign against Iran was a sharp spike in oil prices. After the start of the operation, quotes went up almost vertically: first, the market saw a level above $90 per barrel, then an approach to $120, and by April 27, Brent was trading again around $102 per barrel.

These are not abstract numbers from the stock exchange board.

When oil becomes more expensive, everything becomes more expensive: gasoline, diesel, logistics, air tickets, food, fertilizers, transportation, production. For Ukraine, which is fighting against Russian aggression and depends on fuel imports, such a blow is especially painful.

Why this is important for Ukraine

The Ukrainian economy is already operating under wartime conditions. Any increase in fuel prices immediately affects the cost of defense, agriculture, humanitarian logistics, and exports.

If diesel becomes too expensive, the cost of sowing increases. If the cost of sowing increases, the price of the future harvest rises. If the harvest becomes more expensive, food prices rise. And this is a chain that cannot be stopped with a single political statement.

Financial analysts warn: at an oil price of about $90 per barrel, billions of dollars are additionally drained from the Ukrainian economy. Inflation receives a new impetus, and pressure on the population increases not immediately with one blow, but in waves — through fuel, food, transport, gas, and currency exchange rates.

That is why the war in Iran for Ukraine is not a ‘foreign conflict somewhere far away.’ It is a factor that affects the price of bread, fuel, defense, and the stability of the entire economy.

Even peace will not immediately return prices back

Even if Washington and Tehran unexpectedly agree, the market will not roll back to its previous point in one day.

The Persian Gulf countries will need to restore production, logistics, export routes, and buyer trust. Infrastructure may have been damaged, insurance risks have increased, carriers have already set new prices, and businesses in many countries have managed to adjust prices to expensive oil.

This means that a price drop on the exchange will not necessarily immediately appear at the gas station. Old stocks were purchased expensively, transportation has become more expensive, and market participants rarely rush to quickly return the previous price to the consumer.

For Ukraine, this is especially unpleasant. The spring sowing has already been hit by cost, farmers purchased fuel and fertilizers at the price peak, which means the consequences will be felt for a long time — even after a possible diplomatic lull.

The world pays more, and Russia gets a respite

The most unpleasant part of this story is that the spike in oil prices turned out to be a gift for Moscow.

At the end of 2025, the Russian economy looked increasingly vulnerable. Oil and gas revenues were falling, the budget deficit was growing, sanctions and Ukrainian strikes on energy infrastructure were pressing on the Kremlin’s key source of money. The Reuters agency, as indicated in the original material, wrote that Russia’s financial reserves to cover the deficit could be exhausted by the end of 2026.

But the war in Iran changed the picture.

Urals oil, which before the start of the campaign was trading at about $45 per barrel, rose above $90. For the Russian budget, where the benchmark was set around $59 per barrel, this means a significant increase.

In other words, the more expensive the oil, the more money the country receives, which is waging war against Ukraine.

Petrodollars extend the Kremlin’s resources

According to estimates provided in the material, Russia could earn additional billions of dollars by the end of 2026 if prices remain at the current level and key ports continue to operate. Even if part of this money goes to oil companies, the state will find ways to take more — through taxes, fees, or ‘voluntary’ contributions from big business.

This does not make the Russian economy healthy. The budget deficit, labor shortages, high rates, regional problems, and hidden losses do not disappear.

But the oil rain gives the Kremlin the most valuable thing — time.

Time to continue the war. Time to postpone painful budget cuts. Time to support the military machine that kills Ukrainians and destroys cities. For Israel, this is also not a secondary issue because Moscow is increasingly interacting with Iran, and Iran remains Israel’s main enemy and sponsor of anti-Israeli proxies.

NANews — Israel News | Nikk.Agency considers such topics precisely in this context: the Middle East, Ukraine, Russia, Iran, and Western politics have long ceased to exist separately from each other. A mistake in one region quickly becomes a problem in another.

Why this is dangerous for the West

Western countries found themselves in an uncomfortable trap. They want to weaken Iran, but a blow to Iran raises oil prices. High oil prices strengthen Russia. A strengthened Russia receives more resources for the war against Ukraine. And the war against Ukraine continues to destroy European security.

It turns out to be a vicious circle.

The US and its allies can talk about a strategic goal in the Middle East, but economic reality hits the same allies — through inflation, fuel, food, and social discontent. In Europe, calls are already being heard to save fuel, work from home, and reduce consumption. Airlines cancel flights, raise ticket prices, and restructure routes.

For the Israeli audience, there is an important conclusion here: the fight against Iran cannot be built solely on the logic of a military operation. A strategy is needed that takes into account the oil market, the Russian factor, Ukraine, Europe, sanctions, and long-term consequences for allies.

Israel, Ukraine, and the price of a strategic mistake

Israel is objectively interested in weakening Iran. Tehran has been building a network of threats around the Jewish state for decades — from Hezbollah in Lebanon to armed groups in the region, missile programs, and nuclear ambitions.

But the question is not only whether to strike or not.

The question is how exactly to act, what goals to set, how to assess the consequences, and who benefits from the chaos. If as a result of the campaign Iran is not broken, the global economy receives a shock, Ukraine weakens, and Russia receives oil billions, then the strategic calculation turned out to be at least incomplete.

For Ukraine, this situation looks especially bitter. Kyiv has been asking the West for systemic assistance, weapons, sanctions pressure on Russia, and limiting Russian revenues for years. But one big crisis in the Middle East can partially nullify the effect of these efforts because expensive oil once again fills the Kremlin’s coffers.

What this means for Israel

Israel cannot ignore the Ukrainian dimension. Russia today is not just a separate state waging war in Europe. It is increasingly connected with Iran, receives military technologies from it, politically covers anti-Western regimes, and uses global crises for its own survival.

Therefore, for Israel, it is important to look broader.

If the war against Iran helps Russia earn more, it creates additional risk for both the Ukrainian front and the future security of Israel itself. The longer Moscow stays afloat, the more confident the regimes that oppose the West, Ukraine, and Israel simultaneously feel.

This is the main paradox of the current crisis: an operation aimed against Israel’s enemy simultaneously gave an economic respite to a state that is increasingly entering the orbit of the anti-Israeli and anti-Ukrainian bloc.

Final without illusions

The war in Iran has already changed economic forecasts. Global inflation received a new impulse, Ukraine faced rising fuel and agricultural costs, Europe once again felt energy vulnerability, and Russia got a chance to extend the operation of its military machine.

This does not mean that the Russian economy is saved. Its problems are too deep: budget deficit, dependence on raw materials, sanctions, overheated military industry, labor crisis, and isolation from normal markets have not disappeared.

But now its fall may take more time.

And this is the main political outcome: the Middle Eastern adventure, conceived as a demonstration of strength, became a global economic blow. Ukraine pays with part of its stability, the West with inflation and expensive energy, Israel with increased strategic uncertainty, and Russia receives additional money for war.

Therefore, it is important to analyze such topics to the end — and to monitor how they develop further.